The leading indicators of the emerging markets imply that growth momentum has already been picking up slightly in the last few months. This positive development is probably due for the most part to the higher price of oil. Growth momentum is now accelerating in the industrial nations too, supported by the more favourable development in the emerging markets.
The greater growth momentum comes at exactly the right time. The last few days were marked by rapidly increasing political uncertainty, which could quickly have negative implications for sentiment among corporates and therefore further weaken the willingness to invest. These potential negative effects for the economy should be offset initially by the robust fundamental development.
The latest robust economic development should therefore broaden the scope for political field studies. However, there are limits here too. Overwhelming uncertainty would have a negative effect on economic growth and therefore contribute overall to a slowdown in growth. The emerging markets are thus already helping us to offset possible negative effects of the new political style in the US. This could be something to build on.