DZ Research Blog

Expertise as added value

The DZ Research Blog offers a broad and in-depth analysis spectrum. Experts from DZ BANK Research make contributions and share their views. DZ BANK Research is one of the largest units of its kind in Germany and other German-speaking countries with 85 analysts and economists. In the DZ Research Blog they analyse current data on economic trends, evaluate the latest developments on the capital markets and comment on the impact of political events on the economy. You too can benefit from this added value of expertise.

Family as a success factor

A new study by DZ BANK Research shows: Family businesses are of great economic importance for Germany: over 90 percent of businesses are family-owned. They are not only located in urban areas, but often also in rural regions. In some cases, they are of enormous importance for the economic structure there. The Corona pandemic is also leaving its mark on family businesses. According to an ifo survey, around 80 percent of businesses suffered a drop in orders last year. Family businesses are facing structural challenges. Demographic change will strongly influence the future development of businesses. In the context of generational change, a suitable successor is not always found, and the shortage of skilled workers is also a problem in many industries and rural regions. On the technical side, digitalisation is changing established business models and structures. Especially in rural areas, however, the expansion of the digital infrastructure is not yet…

Quality label for energy efficient mortgages goes live

The „Energy Efficient Mortgage Label“ (EEML), a new quality label that banks can obtain for their mortgages granted to finance energy efficient properties, will soon be introduced to the banking market. The label, which was primarily initiated by the European Mortgage Federation/ European Covered Bond Council (EMF-ECBC), will be officially launched at a virtual event on 12 February. The EEML is intended as a private-sector quality label for consumers, lenders and investors to identify energy efficient mortgages in the portfolios of credit institutions. It is also intended to support „green“ projects at EU level (e.g. EU Green Deal). Banks can apply for the EEML for their loan programmes that meet the requirements for energy efficient mortgages defined by the Energy Efficient Mortgage Initiative (see chart) as part of a self-certification process. Upon receiving the label, banks must report at least quarterly on key features of their EEM portfolio using a…

Euro-area economic outlook: The hope for the recovery lives!

The Corona pandemic is in the middle of its second wave, but the signs of an imminent economic upturn are increasing. This is illustrated by the current development of out leading economic indicator. The DZ BANK Euro Indicator rose by 0.8 percent to a level of 98.8 points in January 2021. This means that the indicator’s annual rate of change of +0.2 percent is above the zero line again for the first time in around two and a half years. The setback in November, when the beginning of the lockdown in a whole series of countries had a noticeable impact on the European sentiment indicators in particular, was more than made up for in the past month. Almost all the sub-indicators included in the calculation have recently contributed to the improvement in our leading indicator.  For example, consumer confidence in Europe recovered somewhat in December according to the EU Commission’s…

Stock market 2021: Valuation looks high, is high, can still rise

14,000 points in the DAX in an eventful week. At the moment, despite political adversity in the USA, it is actually easy to be positive about the stock markets. The end of the Corona pandemic seems to be in sight, despite teething problems with vaccinations in Europe. The unpredictable US President Trump is about to leave, the hard Brexit has been avoided and central bankers are pushing ultra-expansionary monetary policy to the extreme. Above all, the central banks‘ often miraculous monetary expansion looks like a huge marketing campaign for all asset classes. In recent weeks, an optimism, as measured by sentiment surveys and investor behaviour, has spread across the financial markets that has not been seen in this form for a long time. A large majority of private investors and financial professionals are „bullish“, i.e. they are betting on further rising prices. The prices of shares, corporate bonds, bitcoin and…

Trump supporters storm U.S. Capitol

The images in the news yesterday of the formal certification of the US election result by US politicians were terrifying. Trump’s supporters stormed the US Capitol and thereby the seat of the US Congress, the US legislature. The situation quickly escalated. US President Trump, who is still in office, appealed to protesters to act peacefully. However, he did not clearly ask them to leave or criticise them. He still maintains that he did not lose the election. By contrast, his Vice President, Mike Pence, publically demanded that Trump supporters leave the Capitol peacefully. US President-elect Joe Biden has called on Trump to officially accept the election results. Police and security forces were able to secure the building. The session in Congress continued. There is obviously a (probably small) proportion of the population that will not stop at anything, including violent and armed protests. This is without doubt certainly not true…

Six lessons investors can take away from 2020

The year 2020 is drawing to a close. It will go down in the history books as one of the saddest years in decades. 75 million people were infected with the Corona virus, some of them suffering from serious late effects. Over 1.7 million people lost their lives as a result of the Covid 19 pandemic. Behind every death there were indescribable human tragedies. But the virus also had an impact on other areas of life. Above all on global economic performance, which collapsed this year despite support. But the world of work and the lives of every individual also changed. Technological trends were intensified, the triumphal march of digital products and services progressed. The virus also affected politics. Disagreements over fighting against the corona virus and general policy directions were exposed and amplified via the leverage of social media. Political divisions increased, as demonstrated not only by the US…