DZ Research Blog

Expertise as added value

The DZ Research Blog offers a broad and in-depth analysis spectrum. Experts from DZ BANK Research make contributions and share their views. DZ BANK Research is one of the largest units of its kind in Germany and other German-speaking countries with 85 analysts and economists. In the DZ Research Blog they analyse current data on economic trends, evaluate the latest developments on the capital markets and comment on the impact of political events on the economy. You too can benefit from this added value of expertise.

Euro-area economic outlook: The hope for the recovery lives!

The Corona pandemic is in the middle of its second wave, but the signs of an imminent economic upturn are increasing. This is illustrated by the current development of out leading economic indicator. The DZ BANK Euro Indicator rose by 0.8 percent to a level of 98.8 points in January 2021. This means that the indicator’s annual rate of change of +0.2 percent is above the zero line again for the first time in around two and a half years. The setback in November, when the beginning of the lockdown in a whole series of countries had a noticeable impact on the European sentiment indicators in particular, was more than made up for in the past month. Almost all the sub-indicators included in the calculation have recently contributed to the improvement in our leading indicator.  For example, consumer confidence in Europe recovered somewhat in December according to the EU Commission’s…

Stock market 2021: Valuation looks high, is high, can still rise

14,000 points in the DAX in an eventful week. At the moment, despite political adversity in the USA, it is actually easy to be positive about the stock markets. The end of the Corona pandemic seems to be in sight, despite teething problems with vaccinations in Europe. The unpredictable US President Trump is about to leave, the hard Brexit has been avoided and central bankers are pushing ultra-expansionary monetary policy to the extreme. Above all, the central banks‘ often miraculous monetary expansion looks like a huge marketing campaign for all asset classes. In recent weeks, an optimism, as measured by sentiment surveys and investor behaviour, has spread across the financial markets that has not been seen in this form for a long time. A large majority of private investors and financial professionals are „bullish“, i.e. they are betting on further rising prices. The prices of shares, corporate bonds, bitcoin and…

Trump supporters storm U.S. Capitol

The images in the news yesterday of the formal certification of the US election result by US politicians were terrifying. Trump’s supporters stormed the US Capitol and thereby the seat of the US Congress, the US legislature. The situation quickly escalated. US President Trump, who is still in office, appealed to protesters to act peacefully. However, he did not clearly ask them to leave or criticise them. He still maintains that he did not lose the election. By contrast, his Vice President, Mike Pence, publically demanded that Trump supporters leave the Capitol peacefully. US President-elect Joe Biden has called on Trump to officially accept the election results. Police and security forces were able to secure the building. The session in Congress continued. There is obviously a (probably small) proportion of the population that will not stop at anything, including violent and armed protests. This is without doubt certainly not true…

Six lessons investors can take away from 2020

The year 2020 is drawing to a close. It will go down in the history books as one of the saddest years in decades. 75 million people were infected with the Corona virus, some of them suffering from serious late effects. Over 1.7 million people lost their lives as a result of the Covid 19 pandemic. Behind every death there were indescribable human tragedies. But the virus also had an impact on other areas of life. Above all on global economic performance, which collapsed this year despite support. But the world of work and the lives of every individual also changed. Technological trends were intensified, the triumphal march of digital products and services progressed. The virus also affected politics. Disagreements over fighting against the corona virus and general policy directions were exposed and amplified via the leverage of social media. Political divisions increased, as demonstrated not only by the US…

New US fiscal package does not lead to rise in yields on US Treasuries

Policymakers in the United States have agreed on a $900 billion fiscal package. Financing requirements will therefore remain high in the coming year. The aid measure will undoubtedly be financed largely by new debt. This will inevitably be accompanied by an increase in US government bond issuance. The more government bonds are issued, the greater the risk of rising yields for US government bonds. We believe this risk to be limited for the United States though. There are several reasons for this expectation. On the one hand, the inflation rate remains at a low level for the coming year. On the other, many global investors consider US government bonds to be extremely safe and liquid, so they are likely to invest accordingly. Strong demand for U.S. government securities, especially in these uncertain times in the wake of corona, should help prevent a sharp rise in yields. The main reason for…

Dear Readers,

We are very pleased to welcome you to our new DZ Research Blog. It is the continuation and successor of „Bielmeier’s Blog„, which was launched by DZ BANK’s outgoing Chief Economist Stefan Bielmeier about ten years ago. Here you will find comments and assessments from DZ BANK’s Research team, in the same way you were already used to from Bielmeier’s blog. We analyse and evaluate economic data, financial market developments and political events for you – always up-to-date and competent. Find your way through the day-to-day information jungle with us! The expert knowledge of around 85 analysts will continue to ensure that you can always feel well informed on economic and financial issues. If you have not already done so, please subscribe to our newsletter to keep up to date with new blog posts. We wish you informative and enjoyable reading!