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Dear Readers,

We are very pleased to welcome you to our new DZ Research Blog. It is the continuation and successor of „Bielmeier’s Blog„, which was launched by DZ BANK’s outgoing Chief Economist Stefan Bielmeier about ten years ago. Here you will find comments and assessments from DZ BANK’s Research team, in the same way you were already used to from Bielmeier’s blog. We analyse and evaluate economic data, financial market developments and political events for you – always up-to-date and competent. Find your way through the day-to-day information jungle with us! The expert knowledge of around 85 analysts will continue to ensure that you can always feel well informed on economic and financial issues. If you have not already done so, please subscribe to our newsletter to keep up to date with new blog posts. We wish you informative and enjoyable reading!

Results of DZ BANK’s 50th SME survey: Covid-19 still a burden

The Corona pandemic has SMEs firmly in its grip. Increased infection figures and a renewed lockdown are preventing the economic recovery from the third quarter from continuing for the time being. The longer the crisis lasts, the greater its impact will be on many companies. It is little consolation that some sectors, such as construction, have so far been largely spared the negative economic impact. Overall, the results of our current representative survey of 1,500 SMEs, which we conducted for the 50th time this fall, show that the mood among SMEs is somewhat more positive than at the time of the first lockdown in the spring. Nevertheless, the current crisis represents the greatest challenge for SMEs since the financial crisis, if not longer. However, SMEs went into the crisis well prepared: according to calculations by the Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken BVR (Federal Association of German Cooperative Banks), their…

China is gradually regaining its old growth strength

After the deep corona crash at the beginning of the year, the Chinese economy continued its strong recovery over the summer months. Annual economic growth accelerated from 3.2 to 4.9 percent in the third quarter and is thus not far off its previous growth path. By the second quarter, China had already restored its pre-crisis level of economic output. For the year as a whole, there are now signs of growth of around two percent compared with 2019. This makes China one of the very few countries that will even achieve a positive growth rate this year compared to the previous year, and once again proves to be the global economic locomotive. One positive aspect is that the momentum of the recovery has continued until the very end. Both industrial production and the retail trade were able to accelerate their growth significantly in September. The economic climate has recently brightened…

Brexit: Benefits of a trade agreement must be made clear

The free trade talks between Great Britain and the EU have been stalled for months, but since last week they have reached a new low. The brexite drama is back. Once again, everything seems to be heading for a no-deal brexite that would set British trade relations with the EU back to WTO level in an unregulated way. The economic losses that would then be expected for Britain do not seem to play a major role in Boris Johnson’s political calculations. Or are they just not high enough compared to the loss of prosperity that would also be feared if a free trade agreement were successfully concluded? The fact is that Britain’s withdrawal from the internal market will once again create numerous barriers in trade with the EU that were long removed. Some of these barriers to trade could be avoided with a free trade agreement, especially the reintroduction of…

Brexite: Johnson on collision course with the EU

The 8th round of negotiations between the EU and Great Britain on the planned Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will end tomorrow. Negotiations have been underway since the end of February, but have so far been unsuccessful. And this round of negotiations should not be any different. Instead of moving towards each other, the negotiating parties seem to drift further and further apart. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has now also set a hard deadline for the EU summit on October 15. Should the basic structure of an agreement not be in place by then, he wants to prepare his country for a hard brexite. Potentially even more problematic than this deadline is a new draft law that was presented in parliament yesterday. The Internal Market Bill sets out the government’s plans for smooth trade within the UK after the brexite or after the end of the transitional period at the end…

Corona crisis spurs crypto currencies

At the beginning of the Corona pandemic, crypto currencies looked like clear losers of the crisis. However, this has gradually changed since mid-March, and even the recent drop in Bitcoin’s share price back into the USD 10,000 range does not change this. The expansion of expansive monetary policy observed worldwide and the fiscal programs of historic proportions have probably made a significant contribution to the positive momentum. The mix of escalating government debt ratios and, at least in the long term, considerably increasing price pressure has apparently led investors to look for investment opportunities outside the euro, US dollar and other currencies. Numerous crypto-currency proponents also assume sustainable, corona-induced changes in people’s behavior, which would have led to a higher general acceptance of block-chain-based currencies. The background is an assumed structural break in the form of a digitalization push, which has been triggered by increasing web conferences, home office and…

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