Commodity markets

Opec+ has learned

As late as spring, Opec+ had sent the oil price on an epic downward spiral due to disagreements. The corona demand shock was accompanied by production increases – a perfect storm! The oil cartel reacted belatedly and significantly reduced production. Last week there was another showdown in the oil world. This time it was not about production cuts, but about production increases. In other words, the question of how much can be increased without counteracting the oil price stabilization of the last weeks. With a possible increase in production of two million barrels per day, the stakes were once again high, but Opec+ presented a production increase plan („tapering of the cutbacks“) that came as a positive surprise. According to this plan, production will be increased by 500,000 barrels per day in January. In addition, it will be decided on a monthly basis whether production will be further increased or…

Party mood at the crude oil market

With BNT162, a promising vaccine against Covid-19 is taking a big step towards the approval target. Especially the high efficacy of 90 percent according to the vaccine developers was a positive surprise. This figure is not set in stone, as it may change as the study progresses. Although some questions, such as the duration of efficacy, are still open, at least light can now be seen at the end of the dark pandemic tunnel. This is enough to send the crude oil market into ecstasy. Brent crude oil increased by over 12 percent in the last three days. There is no doubt that the vaccine developed at the speed of light, if approved quickly, could become a game changer on the crude oil market. However, as there are restrictions on production and distribution, we do not expect to quickly return to pre-pandemic normality – at least not with regard to…

Avoid extremes

  Gold is one of the big winners of recent developments. Rising debt levels, low interest rates for an incalculable period of time and increasing political uncertainty in many parts of the world have led to a strong increase in interest in gold. At the same time, gold is supposed to make portfolios more resistant to risks that can only be assessed vaguely or not at all from the current perspective – so-called black swans. Besides gold, industrial metals in particular have risen sharply. Of course, the rapid economic recovery in China and the fiscal measures taken in other industrial countries played an important role in this. In addition, a certain scarcity premium is slowly becoming noticeable for many industrial metals. In the medium term, the rapidly advancing digitalization should lead to a noticeably higher demand for metals that are needed in this sector. This goes so far that many…

Gold easily jumps over USD 2,000

Like a highly decorated jumper, Gold easily takes the 2,000-meter hurdle. Especially among institutional investors, gold has become socially acceptable. They are increasingly confronted with the USD 16 trillion problem. That is how high the volume of bonds (investment grade) with negative returns can be quantified. Investment alternatives are therefore a rare commodity. We expect investment demand to continue to rise due to the current interest rate and uncertainty situation. Especially since the gold content of institutional portfolios is still extremely low, at less than 0.5 percent. Also the fact that the status of the US dollar as the ultimate safe haven is at least getting a scratch, speaks for continued high investor interest. At this point, it should also not be forgotten that the gold market is very tight. The globally outstanding Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have a market capitalisation that is just about the same as that…

Gold rediscovered as the oldest asset class

Sometimes things happen fast and even faster than you think. The gold price in USD has broken its all-time high from 2011. The old investment lady is quite convincing in 2020. So far this year, gold has even outperformed the well-trained US technology stocks on the stock market. The price of the precious metal has been rising in various currencies for some years now, which in our view suggests that gold is certainly living up to its reputation as a currency alternative. Now the magical USD 2,000 mark is on the gold agenda. The Corona crisis has abruptly turned the (financial) world upside down and shaken it up once. Although the waves on the capital market have calmed down again, political and economic uncertainties remain very high. In view of the rising number of new infections in the USA, a second wave of infections cannot be ruled out. To cushion…

Gold as an ejection seat hedge in the rising „stock market jet

After a short pause for breath, the price of gold is now rising again and is currently only about USD 100 below its all-time high of 2011. In our view, it will be possible to exceed this level in the current rally, but not necessarily at the first attempt. The current reluctance of central banks to buy gold and the lower demand from jewellers argues for a slight price decline, at least in the short term. However, investment demand is currently very high. Fears of a second corona wave are growing. These uncertainties support gold. However, a second wave, which we do not expect, could also cause investors to panic again. In such a scenario, gold would also lose value. We maintain that gold profits from uncertainty, but not from panic. In the current environment, gold and the global stock markets are rising in step. But this is actually not…

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