With BNT162, a promising vaccine against Covid-19 is taking a big step towards the approval target. Especially the high efficacy of 90 percent according to the vaccine developers was a positive surprise. This figure is not set in stone, as it may change as the study progresses. Although some questions, such as the duration of efficacy, are still open, at least light can now be seen at the end of the dark pandemic tunnel. This is enough to send the crude oil market into ecstasy. Brent crude oil increased by over 12 percent in the last three days.
There is no doubt that the vaccine developed at the speed of light, if approved quickly, could become a game changer on the crude oil market. However, as there are restrictions on production and distribution, we do not expect to quickly return to pre-pandemic normality – at least not with regard to crude oil demand. Demand for gasoline and kerosene, for example, will fall noticeably again in the coming months as a result of the lockdowns light. A sustained recovery in consumption is not expected until the second half of 2021.
We believe it is likely that the party mood on the crude oil market will continue for a few more days. In fact, however, the continued weakness in demand, high global inventories and the now high Opec reserve capacity suggest that the party community will soon be put into a hangover mode. We believe that the price reaction of crude oil will be exaggerated in the short term. However, we feel confirmed by the current development over the next 12 months. We are sticking to our 12-month forecast of USD 50.