Even a „soft“ Brexit does not let the economy take off


The global economy is in difficult waters. Growth has not been as weak as it has been since the financial crisis of 2008/2009. In its current analysis, the International Monetary Fund estimates it at only 3.0 percent for the current year, more than half a percentage point less than last year.

There is certainly a risk that things will get even worse. Namely, if one of the risks that have already been weighing on the global economic climate for some time, and above all on companies‘ willingness to invest, should worsen further.

Fortunately, the two most important issues have not looked like this in recent days. The United States and China seem to be moving more in the direction of (partial) compromises in the trade conflict. It is becoming increasingly clear that the mutual protectionist measures are damaging not only China, the world champion exporter, but also American industry. Here, too, the mood has deteriorated considerably recently, with production falling. This, along with the displeasure of US farmers, is likely to be an important reason for the US President’s new openness to an agreement on some aspects of the dispute.

Brexit is also moving in the right direction. A new compromise has been reached and the agreement on the EU side can be regarded as certain. If the British Parliament also waved through the deal, the tough Brexit could actually be avoided. The markets have already breathed a sigh of relief, even though the vote of the MEPs is by no means certain.

But even if the withdrawal of Great Britain should go without the feared frictions over the stages, this does not mean that the global economic weak phase can be overcome in the foreseeable future. After all, a Brexit deal of any kind is already the basis of most forecasts today. If it is reached, however, one can at least remove one of the risks of a further deterioration from the list.

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